Opening Report – 21 March 2014

1. Introduction

It is expiry today of options, futures, and options on futures which can be pivotal.

An interesting quote below on the situation in the Ukraine… (extracted from a free service from FullerMoney)

Former Ambassador: Putin May Be Just Getting Started
Here are a few segments from this interesting column by Albert R Hunt for Bloomberg:
Michael McFaul, who recently stepped down as U.S. ambassador to Russia, says President Vladimir Putin is riding “an ugly nationalistic fervor that’s off the charts,” and is likely to escalate tensions with the U.S. and Europe over Ukraine.
McFaul, who left his post as ambassador last month to teach at Stanford University, expects tougher sanctions to be imposed on Russia and anticipates Putin will respond “tit for tat.” The Russian leader, he believes, has little interest in negotiations.

And:

“These critics miss an important historical point,” McFaul said. “When the Soviet Union or Russia decides to use coercive force against one of its neighbors, no American president has been able to prevent that. This goes back to President Eisenhower — General Eisenhower — who when the Soviet tanks rolled into Hungary in 1956 couldn’t stop it.”

He added that this also was the case under former President Jimmy Carter when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan; under Ronald Reagan when Moscow imposed martial law in Poland; and during the George W. Bush administration when, in 2008, Russia invaded Georgia.

And:

Noting the “really ugly anti-American” atmosphere in Russia fueled by Putin, McFaul said Russia’s reaction to stiffer sanctions, which he strongly supports, could range from symbolic retaliation to further military action in eastern Ukraine. According to McFaul, Russia’s nationalistic fervor gives Putin more leeway to act

Markets bounced yesterday but we are seeing a test of that move today.

2. UK FTSE 100

FTSE is now at 6558 up 13 points. 6500 is still key support – the chart below shows it now marks a double bottom and there is a possible A-B-C down to yesterday’s low….

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3. The German DAX

The DAX is now at 9349 up 52 points. The DAX is ahead of FTSE seeing the low of its A-B-C on Friday at 8913.

4. The US DOW

The Dow closed yesterday at 16331 up 108 points with the spread betters now quoting it at 16381 (+50). The Dow saw a solid buying spike down to 16126 and a third wave rally…

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5. The Japanese NIKKEI DOW

The Nikkei Dow closed at 14224 down 238 points. The position here is now of more concern and we have now raised our stop to acceptance…

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6. US T-BOND

Bonds continue to correct.

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7. Gold ( UK cash)

Gold may have finished the first leg up but $1433 remains key.

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8. FOREX

GBPUSD and GBPEUR look toppy. I plan to watch the developing wave patterns carefully…

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Opening Report – 13 March 2014

1. Introduction

We are still probing lower but there is a case for at least a bounce now

2. UK FTSE 100

FTSE is now at 6,621 up 1 point. FTSE has now seen a short-term double bottom

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3. The German DAX

The DAX is now at 9,201 up 12 points. A similar picture here with a bounce looking possible – the bounce should give us some good clues

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4. The US DOW

The Dow closed yesterday at 16,340, down 11 points, with the spread betters now quoting it at 16,365 (+25). The fall on the Dow is still far more subdued but and a clear ABC.

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5. The Japanese NIKKEI DOW

The Nikkei Dow closed at 14,815 down 14 points. We remain around 15,000 and now need some upside acceleration

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6. US T-BOND

Bonds continue to correct.

7. Gold (UK cash)

Gold may have started wave 5 up. $1,433 remains key

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8. FOREX

GBP/USD may now be back in the up trend

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