Opening Report – 24 October 2013

1. Introduction

We held our twice yearly seminars over the last three days and it was the first time all four of us have presented together since we launched the new Dow and FX services. It is the first time I have been part of a “team” for many years and I found it an excellent experience. The feedback from those attending was also universally positive.

Equities still look bullish and GBPEUR has probed lower, but no more for now.

2. UK FTSE 100

FTSE is now at 6687 up 13 points. A failure to regain 6700 today would suggest a move down to 6600.

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3. The German DAX

The DAX is now at 8962 up 43 points. Hereto we are seeing a retest of the high (at 8987).

4. The US DOW

The Dow closed yesterday at 15413 down 54 points with the spread betters now quoting it at 15453 (+40). The Dow got a pullback but it has not done much yet.

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5. The Japanese NIKKEI DOW

The Nikkei Dow is now at 14486 up 60 points. New highs look likely here also, but taking their time.

6. US T-BOND

Bonds are rallying but this counts, and still looks, as corrective.

7. Gold ( UK cash)

Gold may now be seeing a C wave off the low at $1179 which might reach $1500.

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8. FOREX

GBPUSD is still re-testing the lower parameter of that multi-year triangle and GBPEUR still looks more negative. GBPEUR took out the low around 1.1750 and triggered my Xtreme Stop but not much has happened and I have lightened the position to an extent.

Opening Report – 15 October 2013

Interesting article in yesterday’s Bangkok Post pointing out that Germany has benefited from three debt write downs in the last 100 years (the Dawes Plan of 1924, the Young Plan of 1929, and the post WW2 Marshall Plan) and urging Germany to approve a EuroBond plan which would surely be a solid step in the right direction. Of course the conversion rates of Spanish bonds, for example, to EuroBonds would no doubt cause issues but surely the “Nazi” parallels of Greece’s neo-fascist Golden Dawn party to the rise of Nazi Germany following harsh reparations after WW1 should give pause for thought.

The author (George Soros no less) concludes “The EU… will not survive a decade or more of stagnation.”

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