Opening Report – 31 January 2013

Great News! It seems the UK is winning the currency wars. But it does have a powerful armoury to do so including “its debt, deficits, unfunded liabilities, reliance on the financial sector, lack of exports, weak government, low growth, stagnant housing market and increasing social unease”

Impressive stuff – how can we lose? Of course some faint hearts may argue we would be better off without all this stuff in our armoury and perhaps a bit of financial muscle may be more useful in the long run. But in today’s upside down world weakness is good and strength is bad, a weak currency sorts out the current bogey man, too much debt secured on over-valued assets even if the cure is potentially far, far worse than the problem in the longer term.

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1. Introduction

£/$ has continued to fall back and it now seems more likely that we are in wave 5, in fact wave iii of 5 – see chart below. As such those who want to take profits and look to [Read the full report]

2. UK FTSE 100

FTSE closed yesterday at 6294 up 9 points with the spreadbetters now (03h30) quoting it at 6309 (+15). The rally continues and the weak £ must be [Read the full report]
3. The German DAX

The DAX closed yesterday at 7833 down 24 points with the spread betters now quoting it at 7843 (+10). One more rally would create a possible [Read the full report]

4. The US DOW

The Dow closed yesterday at 13881 down 14 points with the spread betters now quoting it at 13896 (+15). The Dow went sideways yesterday and the NASDAQ still cannot [Read the full report]

5. The Japanese NIKKEI DOW

The Nikkei Dow is now at 10929 up 104 points. The Nikkei looks good and I have now suggested investment in Japan [Read the full report]

6. US T-BOND

Bonds have seen five waves down and the current rally is decidedly corrective – we may soon see some action here! We remain officially 50% short of shorter dated bonds [Read the full report]

7. Gold ( UK cash)

Gold fell back sharply! This move should tell us what is really going on and it looks like we have lower to go. I think Gold is trying to tell us [Read the full report]

8. FOREX

GBP/USD has broken below the triangle, see chart below – but it looks like this is all part of 3 suggesting a wave 4 rally will come in to re-test the trendline, now around $1.582. We are now officially short here with the stop on acceptance above $1.61. I may suggest taking some [Read the full report]

Opening Report – 25 January 2013

Today’s chart of £/$ shows that one more sell-off may see the end of wave 3 down. But this is only one alternative. I know the way the human mind works. Or at least I know the way my human mind works and, in my experience, we all work in very similar ways when it comes to markets. The problem being we all have these overpowering impulses to grab some profit. This is why I pretty much devote an entire KrautGap module to this problem, and it is a problem. Unless you let profits run, this sort of trading will not work for you. It is different with MFS approach in that he risks much less and his high hit rate allows taking shorter term profits which suits many traders. But this service is devoted to the big moves and to catch those you have to accept higher risk levels and you have to bag the big ones when they come along, not just a small part of them.

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Opening Report – 24 January 2013

1. Introduction

£/$ continues to track the lower parameter in what looks like a wave 4. Unfortunately wave 4 may be tracing out an expanding triangle which is probably the most tricky wave confirmation as far as stops are concerned not that it should trouble our current stop on this position.

2. UK FTSE 100

FTSE closed yesterday at 6197 up 18 points with the spreadbetters now (04h00) quoting it at 6197 (flat). There remains a case for some sort of [Read the full report]

3. The German DAX

The DAX closed yesterday at 7707 up 11 points with the spread betters now quoting it at 7702 (-5). That gap I was talking about has now been mainly [Read the full report]

4. The US DOW

The Dow closed yesterday at 13779 up 67 points with the spread betters now quoting it at 13769 (-10). With the Dow now above the upper parameter of the possible terminal [Read the full report]

5. The Japanese NIKKEI DOW

The Nikkei Dow is now at 10595 up 108 points. The Nikkei looks good [Read the full report]

6. US T-BOND

Bonds have seen five waves down and the current rally is decidedly corrective – we may soon see some action here! We remain officially [Read the full report]

7. Gold ( UK cash)

Gold looks more positive.

8. FOREX

GBP/USD is now right on the lower trendline, see chart below – if this count is correct we may soon see wave 5 down (but maybe after another rally) and at that point the lower trendline may become key resistance. We are now officially [Read the full report]

Opening Report – 22 January 2013

1. Introduction

£/$ has fallen nicely since we were triggered short on Wednesday on the move below $1.5984. Current level is $1.5832 so the trade is now up 152 “points!” In fact £/$ is now right on the lower trendline, see chart at bottom.

2. UK FTSE 100

FTSE closed yesterday at 6180 up 26 points with the spreadbetters now (01h30) quoting it at 6180 (flat). Expiry was fairly quiet to positive but we now have a possible and very well-formed five waves [Read the full report]

3. The German DAX

The DAX closed yesterday at 7748 up 46 points with the spread betters now quoting it at 7733 (-15). That gap I was talking about has now been mainly filled [Read the full report]

4. The US DOW

The Dow closed on Friday at 13649 down 53 points with the spread betters now quoting it at 13650 (+1). With the Dow now above the lower parameter of the possible terminal diagonal pattern [Read the full report]

5. The Japanese NIKKEI DOW

The Nikkei Dow is now at 10748 up 1 points. The Nikkei looks good [Read the full report]

6. US T-BOND

Bonds have seen five waves down – we may finally see some action here! We remain officially 50% [Read the full report]

7. Gold ( UK cash)

Gold looks more positive [Read the full report]

8. FOREX

GBP/USD is now right on the lower trendline, see chart below – we may now break below with a fourth wave rally re-testing that trendline [Read the full report]

Opening Report – 16 January 2013

1. Introduction

The Dow went up again yesterday and is still tracking that lower trendline – see chart below. So the bear case is still intact.

2. UK FTSE 100

FTSE closed yesterday at 6107 down 13 points with the spreadbetters now (04h30) quoting it at 6097 (-10). More fairly quiet action with options expiry [Read the full report]

3. The German DAX

The DAX closed yesterday at 7729 up 13 points with the spread betters now quoting it at 7719 (-10). A sharp reversal here with a five wave form if we drop below 7700 [Read the full report]

4. The US DOW

The Dow closed yesterday at 13507 up 18 points with the spread betters now quoting it at 13477 (-30). There remains a case for a breakout above resistance [Read the full report]

5. The Japanese NIKKEI DOW

The Nikkei Dow is now at 10869 up 68 points [Read the full report]

6. US T-BOND

Bonds have seen five waves down – we may finally see some action [Read the full report]

7. Gold ( UK cash)

Gold still looks positive but not enough to convince [Read the full report]

8. FOREX

GBP has now seen five waves down, see chart below, and I mentioned using Xtreme Stop to trade this [Read the full report]