Opening Report – 21 December 2012

It is getting critical on the Dow and I will be watching this very carefully. However after tomorrow’s report we are going onto our “holiday” format meaning I will only update when I have something of note to say. Meanwhile I hope you enjoy this topical joke…

Mayan Joke:

Mayan guy: “Wanna get a beer?”

Other Mayan Guy: “I’m working on this calendar, but
I guess if I don’t finish it won’t be the end of the world.”

2. UK FTSE 100

FTSE closed yesterday at 5912 down 9 points with the spreadbetters now (05h30) quoting it at 5927 (+15). Support around 5900 effectively held again yesterday and FTSE is still trying to make it/hold above 5900 and the feel-good factor at this time of year may still allow a more sustained move – although it is taking its time!  My overall feeling remains that any such a move will not be sustained much beyond the New Year but right now FTSE remains positive with new highs for the year likely. We remain 50% long-term short via the ETF SUK2. We are also 50% long the VIX via the ETF VIXS.

3. The German DAX

The DAX closed yesterday at 7604 up 8 points with the spread betters now quoting it at 7624 (+24). Acceptance below 7560 may be of concern but we are seeing a slow sideways drift suggesting higher prices. We remain 50% long term short of the DAX via the ETF ETFS Fund Company Plc DAX 2X Short Fund Shares EUR (GBP).

4. The US DOW

The Dow closed yesterday at 13235 up 100 points with the spread betters now quoting it at 13275 (+40). We have seen five waves down and now what may be the corrective rally is in progress – see chart below – 13275 is the level to watch and as that is exactly where we are “out-of-hours” it may be a very interesting day…

[Read the full report]

Opening Report – 14 December 2012

The Dow is falling away from that trendline and this is the key area to watch right now!

2. UK FTSE 100

FTSE closed yesterday at 5932 down 13 points with the spreadbetters now (05h30) quoting it at 5930 (-2). FTSE is still trying to make it/hold above 5900 and the feel-good factor at this time of year may still allow a more sustained move.

3. The German DAX

The DAX closed yesterday at 7581 down 32 points with the spread betters now quoting it at 7586 (+5). Acceptance below 7560 may be of concern.

4. The US DOW

The Dow closed yesterday at 13170 down 74 points with the spread betters now quoting it at 13180 (+10). We now have a failure and any move below 13147 would give us a major sell signal [Read the full report]

Opening Report – 6 December 2012

Market are showing more life, FTSE/DAX continues to look positive with breakouts now coming in whilst US markets remain potentially negative.

2. UK FTSE 100

FTSE is now at 5906 up 14 points. FTSE has been trying to make it above 5900 for the last three months and keeps getting turned back – we will see how this attempt fares. However the feel-good factor at this time of year may allow a more sustained move.  My overall feeling is that such a move will not be sustained as that feel-good factor dissipates in the New Year but right now FTSE remains positive with new highs for the year likely. We remain 50% long-term short via the ETF SUK2. We are also 50% long the VIX via the ETF VIXS.

3. The German DAX

The DAX is now at 7466 up 12. The DAX is far more dynamic and is making new highs for the year, in Market Profile we are seeing initiating buyers come in. We remain 50% long term short of the DAX via the ETF ETFS Fund Company Plc DAX 2X Short Fund Shares EUR (GBP) [Read the full report]

Opening Report – 4 December 2012

The Pitfox seminar at the weekend was fascinating and a great refresher on Market Profile from my point of view. In terms of markets right now we are right at the top of the value area, meaning that value (as defined by market action over the last few months) is below us; so practitioners of this particular art will be looking for sell signals and the opportunity to sell above “value.” Meanwhile Pitfox himself was still holding long having bought below value a couple of weeks ago. Market Profile pretends no predictive value and looks to the market to call the trades. We may be above “value” but, as yet. we have no clear reason to sell [Read the full report]