Opening Report – 20 September 2012

More fairly quiet expiry action yesterday with expiry now due tomorrow.

2. UK FTSE 100

FTSE closed yesterday at 5888 up 20 points with the spread betters now (05h00) quoting it at 5868 (-20). FTSE continues to flirt with triangular resistance and still nothing to question the uptrend. We remain 50% short via the ETF SUK2. We are also 50% long the VIX via the ETF VIXS.

3. The German DAX

The DAX closed yesterday at 7390 up 43 points and hereto we see the DAX flirting with the upper parameter – see chart above. We are now 50% short of the DAX via the ETF ETFS Fund Company Plc DAX 2X Short Fund Shares EUR (GBP).

4. The US DOW

The Dow closed yesterday at 13577 up 13 points with the spreadbetters now quoting it at 13522 (-55). Similar action here with a fall back overnight. We remain 50% short of the NASDAQ via the ETF Proshares Trust Ultrashort QQQ

5. The Japanese NIKKEI DOW

The Nikkei Dow is now at 9101 down 130 points. We blipped above 9222 in a 5 wave form and are now falling back. I have a stop in place to buy at the high, 9288, as this would suggest some form of third wave rally.

6. US T-BOND

Bonds fell some more. We remain officially 50% short of shorter dated bonds via the ETF DB X-Trackers II IBOXX Short USD Treasuries Tr Index 1C (XUTS).

7. Gold ( UK cash)

Gold is also becalmed but another rally looks close, as I said Xtreme Stop could work wonders here. Only worry is the world and his dog seem positive! We are 100% long via the ETF (PHAU) and entered when Gold was around $1560.

8. FOREX

GBP/EUR is looking good and a move above 1.2475 would suggest five waves up. The GBP/USD is heading towards $1.65 as expected, now at $1.6250.

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Opening Report – 18 September 2012

1. Introduction

A quite day on the markets yesterday with KrautGap logging a small profit. The sideways action is actually forming a re-test of those key triangles on the DAX and FTSE and with the trend still clearly up I intend to buy either a buying spike or a break to new highs (via Xtreme Stop) – this may be a shorter term trade (and hedge existing long-term shorts).

2. UK FTSE 100

FTSE closed yesterday at 5893 down 22 points with the spread betters now (03h00) quoting it at 5878 (-15). We have a mild break above triangular resistance and this small “test” is holding the upper parameter for now. We remain 50% short via the ETF SUK2. We are also 50% long the VIX via the ETF VIXS….

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Opening Report – 13 September 2012

When I first started out in the “trading” business I used to swap newsletters with Robert Prechter who writes the Elliott Wave Theorist. I then managed to upset him, I believe by calling him a lucky monkey, and he then used the lucky monkey piece in his promo without giving me due credit which did not make me very happy either. Anyway I decided to re-subscribe recently as I always enjoyed his work on socionomics and the tying in of popular music and film, among other things, to the mass psychology which, of course, also drives stock prices. BUT EWT is always so negative and here is an example which forms the first line of the September issue “Global markets and economies are mired in the early stages of the biggest disaster ever!” The problem is that reading EWT has always been an exercise in brainwashing yourself into a view of total gloom and despondency but the real world does not work that way. Plus it does not help that he is most often wrong (hence the lucky monkey remark) starting with his buy signal the week before the 1987 Crash to his more recent comment (in August as I recall) that Gold is due a big fall due to deflation. EWT may be interesting but I suspect I will stop reading it in the fairly near future.

Btw I have just read that the gain on Apple between May 2011 and September 2012 accounted for the majority of the 16% gain on the NASDAQ 100 between those dates – ex-Apple the gain would have been only 5.4%! The iPhone 5 was launched yesterday as “the biggest thing to happen to iPhone since iPhone” – not sure about that headline but it seems to tick all the boxes.

2. UK FTSE 100

FTSE closed yesterday at 5782 down 10 points with the spread betters now (03h00) quoting it at 5777 (-5). Triangular resistance, as discussed yesterday, is around 5850. We remain 50% short via the ETF SUK2. We are also 50% long the VIX via the ETF VIXS.

3. The German DAX

The DAX closed yesterday at 7343 up 33 points and yesterday’s high at 7410 hit triangular resistance – see chart below. The fall off that peak looks corrective so far. We are now 50% short of the DAX via the ETF ETFS Fund Company Plc DAX 2X Short Fund Shares EUR (GBP).

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Opening Report – 11 September 2012

I am staying in Hua Hin at the moment. I think it is fair to say this is Thailand’s premier beach resort as the Royal Family have a palace here – I’m certainly impressed with the place even though I got thrashed on the Go Kart course yesterday. Anyway I was having dinner with a friend in one of the restaurants which are supported by poles laid into the beach and we started to discuss Apple. He was saying that a few people are now suggesting the best is behind this company and it is time to go short. I can see a number of compelling reasons to agree not the least of which is the huge prices Apple charges for its products as we now see similarly attractive products entering the market in direct competition. Plus I recently bought an iPad and I cannot say I am too impressed. Why on earth you have to pay an additional £100 for an additional 16 GB and yet another £100 just so it can take a SIM card beats me – the expression “rip-off” springs rapidly to mind! Anyway I extracted my Nokia E5 (cost c. £100 for the whole unit including ability to take a SIM card and it will feed my computer a very effective internet link), looked up Apple on IG and promptly put on a “test” short position at £2 per point. Little did I know! Within seconds I was down £400, and seconds later I was up £400!! That will teach me to pay more attention! Anyway I closed for a £400 profit and Apple and I are now square as that covered the cost of the iPad! Otherwise markets are still pretty quiet – incidentally if I had only held onto my £2 pp short of Apple I would now be up around £4000 on that “small” position.

2. UK FTSE 100

FTSE closed yesterday at 5793 down 1 points with the spread betters now (03h00) quoting it at 5763 (-30). FTSE is stalling around 5800 but higher prices still seem indicated. We remain 50% short via the ETF SUK2. We are also 50% long the VIX via the ETF VIXS.

3. The German DAX

The DAX closed yesterday at 7213 down 1 points and has spent the last two sessions going sideways in a narrow range. We are now 50% short of the DAX via the ETF ETFS Fund Company Plc DAX 2X Short Fund Shares EUR (GBP).

4. The US DOW

The Dow closed yesterday at 13254 down 52 points with the spreadbetters now quoting it at 13224 (-30). The sharp fall on Apple is of some concern but little to go on right now. We remain 50% short of the NASDAQ via the ETF Proshares Trust Ultrashort QQQ

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