Opening Report – 26 July 2012

We have seen impulsive declines and now we are going through a quieter period which is as we would expect from a corrective phase. I continue to look for more downside once this phase is over. Markets are also awaiting the US GDP figures tomorrow and the market reaction to these will be of interest. For example weak figures (which are likely in this environment) can be viewed negatively as it is “bad” news or positively as it may lead to more stimulation, albeit this has done pretty much zero for the economy so far but that was never the main aim.

Opening Report – 24 July 2012

Markets are seeing impulsive declines and FTSE has either already seen five waves down or needs one more decline to complete this – see chart below. This suggests a rally of sorts but we are again into event-driven territory with Spanish Bonds under severe pressure (Greece must be glad to be out of the spotlight for a while) meaning action may depend on random news items.

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Opening Report – 20 July 2012

Markets are moving into expiry on a high note but it is what happens in the next couple of sessions which is important.

UK FTSE 100

FTSE is now at 5693 down 20 points. FTSE is having trouble holding 5700 but the final expiry gasp after 10h00 may sort that, briefly. We are seeing with a “flat” C wave rally but C has yet to equal the length of wave A but this is not mandatory and the current fraction is a Gann 75%. We remain 50% short via the ETF SUK2. We are also 50% long the VIX via the ETF VIXS…

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Opening Report – 19 July 2012

Expiry action continues and markets moved up yesterday. If we look at FTSE it closed on Friday at 5659. It then spent Monday and Tuesday going down around 40 points and has now rallied to take it up around 40 points from Friday’s level. However other markets have been far more positive with the DAX taking out 6641 as discussed in the video clip yesterday. At this point expiry is the key issue which comes in tomorrow. However there seems to be a lot of bullishness about which is a negative factor.

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